Khanna - Move: The Forces Uprooting Us

I follow Parag Khanna's writing and other media releases because I often find that he is quite able to get ahead of trends and predict changing environmental, economic, social, and political conditions that are important to us. His latest book, Move: The Forces Uprooting Us (2021), is again prescient in looking at the shifts in the world that will undoubtedly impact all our lives. This Talks at Google video captures the essence of Move and references other books Khanna authored.

Economic inequality and political upheaval intersecting with global environmental impact are driving people all around the world to move. Where people, especially those who are young and talented, are moving is the key. These moves involve both push and pull - environmental and economic disruption is the push and urbanization is the pull. The winners of the world talent competition, and the innovation and economic vitality it brings, are emerging but yet to be fully determined. Which cities will be on the list will have a profound effect on all our lives.

Much of Move includes review of various countries, their current state, politics, economic opportunity, and changing climate. Anyone who wants an objective summary of the state of the world will deeply appreciate these chapters and North Americans, in particularly, should carefully study Chapter 4, the “New American Dream.” The conclusions readers can reach from these chapters could very easily impact the movement of talent across the globe because the evidence leads to an ultimate conclusion that “mobility is destiny” and the forces impacting mobility are more often than not, beyond our ability to control and are accelerating. The key forces shaping this acceleration in human geography include; demographic imbalances, politic upheaval, economic dislocation, technology disruption, and climate change.

Khanna proposes that there are four likely scenarios for the future based on the determinants of mobility, authority, technology, and community (Chapter 1). The four scenarios include: 1) “Regional Fortresses” (much like today), 2) “New Middle Ages” (even greater fragmentation), 3) “Barbarians at the Gate” (more intensified competition and exploitation), and 4) “Northern Lights” (advanced planning for large-scale resettlement and environmental regeneration).  Northern Lights is by far the most attractive scenario for collective humanity and it requires movement of talent (especially those who are youthful, well-educated, and ambitious) across national borders with those countries that are most open to movement being the ones that prosper most. Attracting the Millennial and Gen Z cohort will require accommodating their mindset, which Khanna characterizes simply as “They want to work to live, not live to work. They want to be happy, do good, and not be poor” (p. 68). And, they are increasingly cosmopolitan (citizens of the world) and cause-mopolitans who are deeply concerned about climate change.

The issue of climate change is one of the most influential in driving talent migration. With southern hemisphere countries getting hotter and dryer, migration will push toward the north, potentially creating a new arctic “polar Silk Road.” Urban areas that are more protected from the devastation of climate change and that have created economies that welcome the flow of talent will grow in prosperity with the winners falling in zones such as inner regions of Canada, Colorado and the Great Lakes in North America, Germany and Scandinavian countries in Europe, and the “stans” rimming the Black and Caspian Seas. In locations where climate is less severe, with diverse talent attracted from throughout the world, “The most important passports of the future are skills and health rather than nationality”… with individuals judged “not by the accident of birth, but on their potential to contribute to society” (p. 231). And, those carrying these talent passports will have expectations of the places where they flow, and are likely to value “sustainable economies, diverse and inclusive societies, and a culture of rights and wellness” (p. 241).

Khanna’s analyses are very contemporary but his message is based on history – “Civilizations of the past collapsed because they failed to adapt to the complexity they themselves created” (p. 264). The adaptations that are now required globally will include mobility and sustainability that will move to higher elevations in northern regions of the world. Mass migration will then require open borders, attractive working and living environments, and a change in mindset from national sovereignty to shared stewardship for regions on which all humanity will increasingly rely for food, energy, and other critical resources. Khanna uses the term “cosmopolitan utilitarianism” to describe his view of mobility across the globe, movement that he believes should be a paramount human right (p.274).