Bremmer - The Power of Crisis

Ian Bremmer's latest book, The Power of Crisis: How Three Threats and Our Response will Change the World (2022), is short and very much to the point. The world community has work to do and we should do it quickly before the crises we now face get beyond our ability to address them. The hopeful part of his warning is that crisis tends to call the greatest ingenuity and most creativity from the human spirit so we can address our shared problems, but it is a matter of awareness of the risks and the will to do something about it.

Bremmer used the recent pandemic of 2020 and beyond to extract the lessons that we need to collectively learn. The three crises he says are eminent are shaking off the effects (economic, political, and social) of COVID-19, climate change, and the impact of new technologies that are changing our daily lives. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated graphically that we have both a civil war within the U.S.A. (polarization around science, common welfare, and politics) and the risk of a new cold war between the U.S.A. and China. In fact, COVID-19 pushed the world into a geopolitical recession where political groups withdrew from engaging with one another and across national borders. The impending crises of climate and technology will require new international systems of engagement that are designed to address today's and tomorrow's challenges.

With all that globalism promised, it has been a miserable failure. Specifically, the anticipated leveling of opportunity and economies was not only unfulfilled but wealth and resource inequality increased in the face of rising commercial exchange across borders. The wealth gaps in the U.S.A. have contributed significantly to the acrimony and divisiveness of political decision making, with those who are wealthy manipulating less-resourced groups against each other. The evidence of who controls political discourse is clearly evident in the $14 billion spent on elections for the two houses of Congress in 2020, a figure double that of 2016. One of the most inflammatory dimensions of politics in the U.S.A. is structural racism, a pervasive dynamic that many assert doesn't even exist.

Bremmer asserted that Xi Jinping, not U.S.A. Presidents and politicians, has placed U.S.A.-China relations on a more precarious path. The most frightening aspect of this is that the world has never experienced a time when its largest economy (soon to be China) was directed by an authoritarian government. The problem is that, for all the frailties of authoritarianism, it creates more cohesion and immediate functionality than messy democracy. At present, the balance of power between the U.S.A. and China is unclear, a situation in which inadvertent or purposeful conflict is much more likely to occur. Conflict could arise from governmental subsidies to businesses that lower production costs, from the theft of intellectual and innovation property, or it could arise from the growing threat China is signaling in relation to Hong Kong, and even more so in relation to Taiwan. The most likely battle between the U.S.A. and China is in relation to the future of technology - communications, machine learning, surveillance, and artificial intelligence.

The lessons that the COVID-19 pandemic taught the world include: invest in national and local readiness, share information, and share burdens and their resolution. The economic damage of the pandemic was widespread and deep, but it also sped up the transition from a 20th century to a 21st century economy. This is particularly applicable in relation to digital age companies.

For possible answers to the dysfunction of both the politics of the U.S.A. and China, Bremmer recommended looking at Europe's leadership on climate, technology, and provision of citizen safety nets. The work undertaken across European borders has been more effective than many other areas of the world, including even within the 50 Unites States. Climate and political refugees have flooded into many European countries and accommodating them has not been easy. However, by contrast to the U.S.A., political leaders recognize that refugees will create public unrest wherever they land and that constant effort to shape public perception in positive ways is essential. Climate and human migration will be challenging but Bremmer predicts that artificial intelligence is the greatest potential disrupter - "The greatest risk that AI presents is the possibility that one country will develop an insurmountable lead in its development, an achievement that would allow it monopolistic control over the world order" (p. 159).

The solution to the crises we presently face is for the U.S.A. and China to recognize that they must avoid economic and political stalemate, parking the differences that are real in order to find solutions that protect the whole of humanity. The technology challenge can be managed by creating a World Data Organization composed of European, Asian, and other allies that will by necessity bring China to the table. The resolution of our joint climate and technology challenges may emerge from a type of "Goldilocks crisis" that demonstrates the viability of multiple forms of government and focuses on practical solutions based on complex social engagement, cooperation, and coordination.