Gladwell - Revenge of the Tipping Point

Malcolm Gladwell set out to reprieve the first of his several books when a "refresh" clearly became a much bigger task and possibility. The result is Revenge of the Tipping Point: Overstories, Superspreaders, and the Rise of Social Engineering (2024), written 25 years after the original Tipping Point. The first Tipping Point explored how the Law of the Few, the Power of Context, and the Stickiness Factor created social contagion. The new tipping point looks at social epidemics and the role of people who know where, when, and how to exert power to create the change they want. While I am most interested in how positive trends can be fostered, understanding how some of the negative trends of the past and present were possible is also important.

The first assertion of the revenge of the tipping point is that social epidemics are fired by a sometimes very small number of people who have very significant power and influence. Analyses of the COVID-19 pandemic focused on "index" cases, which are the people who got the virus started. Of course, there were multiple theories as COVID began to spread - where did it come from and by what means did it spread? Gladwell's analyses indicated that, regardless if you believe the virus came from a lab in China or elsewhere, it clearly spread from aspiration. The degree to which one individual infects others is based on how much their breath spreads the tiny particles that carry the virus. High saturation of the virus is prevalent in thick saliva, which is common among those who are dehydrated. Where is dehydration most common - among those who are overweight and older. These individuals were found to be the most likely superspreaders of the COVID-19 pandemic and they had the worst consequences when they got it. Social epidemics do not require dense aspiration particles but rely on superspreaders with oversized impact on public perception and opinion.

Gladwell's second assertion is derived from research conducted by Rosabeth Moss Kanter on workplace "belonging." She found that boundary breakers by race, sex, and other differences aren't given space to be themselves until there is a critical mass of their same identity. The changeover from hostile to welcoming environment occurs when the "magic third" is achieved, which is also a point at which the majority begins to notice their presence. The "revenge of the turning point" is that moment when the possibility or actuality of who is present is recognized.

Noticing the possibility of African Americans moving into the neighborhood during mid-20th century was what drove suburban "white flight." The emergence of the magic third threshold can be the result of accident or intention and realtors sought to make sure neither was possible. Recognizing the possibility that African Americans were coming to the suburbs, realtors and loan officers conspired through red-lining to protect white households from shifting proportions on their blocks. Prevention of white flight through red-lining was a form of social engineering to avoid a potential tipping point. The Harvard affirmative action case challenged its social engineering of enrollment. The case revealed that sports-inclined privileged white students, as well as alumni legacies, were favored over Asian students who would otherwise have out-qualified them. If the enrollment tipped, Asian students might have achieved the magic third feared by administrators.

The third assertion of Revenge of the Tipping Point is about the stories we hear and tell. Gladwell refers to Zeitgeist, a perception of current circumstances that can be rewritten or reimagined, in ways that change the way people behave. The first example Gladwell used to demonstrate this point is the introduction in the 1950s of the term Holocaust as the term for Nazi genocide and the second is the role the TV hit "Will and Grace" played in normalizing gay relationships. In both of these examples, the public consciousness and beliefs changed as a result of restorying. The public tipped with "The Holocaust" becoming the common term and laws recognizing gay marriage embraced.

As Gladwell says, "Overstories matter. You can create them. They can spread. They are powerful. And they can endure for decades" (p. 282). An integrative and sad example Gladwell used to combine the importance of superspreaders, group proportions, and overstories was the OxyContin epidemic. What was initially perceived to be an almost magical remedy to pain turned into over prescriptions by complicit physicians, perverse marketing strategies recommended by McKinsey consulting, and a strategy to restory OxyContin's risks. Gladwell said, "The opioid crisis unfolded in three acts" (p. 294) - the manufacturer avoided states that had tracking mechanisms, a diabolic scheme for marketing focused on physicians who were prone to abuse, and the public stumbled ahead in its pursuit of pain relief that ended in addiction for many.

Superspreaders, proportionality, and restorying can be employed for both negative and positive purposes. Knowing the potential power of the three ideas can help to protect against abuses as well as provide useful concepts for those striving to exercise leadership to bring about positive change.