Trump's 2nd coming

An opinion piece in the January 29, 2025, Chicago Tribune authored by a new U.S. citizen referred to Trump's "2nd coming" as fear arose that his citizenship could be denied before he took his oath on January 21, 2025. Considering all that we know of Trump's staunch Christian evangelical base, perhaps the "2nd coming" fits. David Brooks' "How to Destroy What Makes America Great" in the New York Times recounts human history where empires achieved greatness by connecting across cultures. By contrast, the Trump strategy is to isolate and establish the U.S. as superior to other nations. While Trump called April 4 "Liberation Day, " Brooks asserts that it is more of a "Stagnation Day." The 2nd coming may be more about withdrawal and decline rather than a historic and revelatory new day.

The pace of the first days of Trump's 2nd term could be characterized as a bullet train compared to the train wreck of his 1st term. The pace, unpredictability, randomness, and chaos that Trump creates is intentional. He sees uncertainty and surprise as key to success in negotiation - keep your opponents "on their heels" and there's much greater chance of success. Trump denied knowledge of, and disavowed a commitment to, Project 2025 during his campaign. Whether that was a lie or ignorance, the executive orders parallel the numerous points made in Project 2025. Watch the Heritage Foundation website to understand the victories being claimed by those who drafted  the Project 2025 strategy. Even if only partially implemented, those elements that survive public scrutiny, reaction, and counter-moves will have a huge impact.

The interview of Parag Khanna by Anthony Scaramucci revealed the underlying rationale for the strong executive assertions that are clearly part of Trump's vision. Khanna noted that J.D. Vance and Elon Musk are adherents of Curtis Yorvan's view that democracy is obsolete and should be replaced by monarchy. The world periodic table of states on which Khanna is working will propose a different way of looking at governments. The periodic table adds state capacities like equality, climate resilience, food security, energy security, and AI readiness to the mix of variables that are presumed to be part of a "healthy state." Going beyond democracy to forms of government that are benevolent autocracies that are accountable to their citizens (technocracies in Khanna's terms) proposes different types of government that can serve their people. One of the essential questions is if such a benevolent monarchy, and in the U.S. case oligarchy, is accountable to its citizens. This is where the Trump strong executive model goes off the tracks as accountability systems have been dismantled and calls to account are brushed away.

Ian Bremmer's TED interview offers detailed analysis and insight of the present state in the waning days of winter 2025. Leaning into the stability and dominance of the U.S. in economic and military terms under the Biden administration, Trump announced stunning tariffs that shook the world economy. Seeking to make his mark, Trump has interjected drama on many fronts which is undoing the world order that the U.S. created over decades of diplomacy. The deliberate sabotage of Ukraine's Zelensky in the Oval Office on Friday, February 28, 2025, received praise from Republicans, condemnation from Democrats, and incredulity from international media. After viewing the videotape of the exchange, it's hard to not see that Vance and Trump orchestrated the confrontation to absolve Trump of any obligation to pursue diplomatic solutions to Russia's attack of Ukraine. Drawing Zelensky into the trap allowed Trump to characterize Zelensky as ungrateful and unwilling to pursue negotiation orchestrated by Trump. Literally thrown out of the White House after the exchange, Trump achieved the win/win for himself when Zelensky left with two options: 1) apologetically acquiesce to Trump's assertions (and an agreement to give away Ukraine's natural resources), or 2) reject the affront, allowing Trump to assert that Zelensky is uncooperative as Trump continues to pivot to advocacy for Russia. Will the U.S. survive this kind of self-interested upending of America's role in the world? Bremmer predicted a return to balance, different but at least not as chaotic, once citizens feel the real impact of Trump's policies.

Trump sees himself as a master at negotiation, embracing a distributive negotiation worldview where he competes in a win/lose competition for limited resources. With such a view, uncertainty and chaos may be successful on many immediate initiatives. However, the downside is that uncertainty undermines rather than builds trust. But trust never was part of the Trump strategy and this is evident in who supported both his 2016 and 2024 campaigns. The pollsters all misread what was happening - Trump had so effectively sown disbelief and distrust in media, government, education, and any sector that harbored "elites" that all were easy targets. Discrediting all those systems that more privileged citizens saw as serving and protecting them only reinforced the base of skeptics who love Trump. They say "he calls it as it really is" which "outs" a system that never worked for them as working class citizens with less educational opportunity and success. Governance by complaint, along with discrediting what previously served as separation of powers and church/state influence, has been significantly shaped by the rise of Christian nationalism and was driven by the the growing reliance on money, lies, and citing of God's provenance.

Researchers on trust in government in Canada reported early findings of their study at the International Leadership Association conference in November, 2024, in Chicago. The preliminary analyses indicates that we no longer live in a world where trust and distrust is a continuum with two alternatives. Trust in Canadian government has become a balance between justified and unjustified trust and mistrust. The result is four quadrants of justified trust, justified mistrust, unjustified trust, and unjustified mistrust. In an era of disinformation these four quadrants become very important and the Canadian researchers findings indicate that a significant portion of the citizenry in Canada moved into the unjustified mistrust quadrant, complicating any effort to gain trust of any type. As a U.S. citizen, I was provoked to wonder where the electorate has shifted and my guess is that those who refused to vote for Kamala Harris, even though she was much more qualified and credentialed, were substantially coming from an unjustified mistrust of current U.S. government. On the other hand, those who readily supported Donald Trump voted from an unjustified trust perspective - when the system has never worked for you, why wouldn't you vote for someone who calls out the failings of the current system and proclaims a new path forward?

Maya Angelou's quote "When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time" transcends time and is particularly applicable to today. Trump denied knowledge of Project 2025, which had many elements related to education, and now they are coming to pass - reducing the scope of the Education Department, dismantling and punishing those committed to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), placing voting laws under federal control, and imposing policies and practices that threaten free expression under the guise of protecting Jewish students and scholars. When asked about the origin of sometimes baseless assertions, Trump cites "common sense" or that he's a very smart person. Albert Einstein's comment that "common sense is nothing more than a deposit of prejudices laid down in the mind before you reach eighteen" is perhaps applicable.

April 5, 2025, was the beginning of significant push-back with tens of thousands of people assembling across the U.S. in "Hands Off" rallies. All were peaceful and many had moments of joyfulness as chants echoed through urban canyons. Where "Hands Off" leads will be key to whether balance is restored in the branches of U.S. government. My deepest concern is identifying ways that will bring a return to reason and trust in leadership and the systems on which citizens depend.